Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
